Green from Reds: Your Best Bet for Week 24

Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Win, lose or draw, we’re going to be smiling regardless of what happens between Toronto FC and Nashville SC this weekend. A smile courtesy of some advanced analytical probability prediction analysis, or as I like to say, betting on sports. 

From the depths of my degenerate brain, I bring you the two best bets for Saturday’s Eastern Conference duel. Odds courtesy of WynnBET.

Toronto Repeats an Old Trick

The current iteration of the Reds differs greatly from the one that slogged through the first twenty games. This roster has undergone a major overhaul mid-season, which leaves a lot of our data almost useless. 

Nonetheless, we’ve seen over the last three games that the attacking threat of this side is indeed very real. Our friend, the numbers can back that up. In their last two league matches, Toronto has posted an xG of 1.5 and 2.1 against Charlotte FC and the New England Revolution, respectively.

Both figures are higher than their season average of 1.1. This offensive improvement follows the emergence of breakout star, Ifunanyachi Achara. 

No, I’m kidding. It’s largely because of the Italians, forwards Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi, with the latter having taken the league by the scruff of the neck. In 209 minutes, Bernardeschi has already put up a goal and two assists, having lighter legs than his compatriot who, while effective, is still searching for fitness.

Losing a Step

Nashville SC comes into Saturday off a mid-week draw with the Portland Timbers. During their first two seasons, Nashville developed a reputation as a strong defensive unit. In 2022, that unit has seen regression. Those initial two seasons saw Nashville concede an average of .96 goals per game. This figure has risen to 1.26 in the current campaign. More so, they have allowed a goal in 25 of 27 matches played, including their most recent draw with Portland. 

The GEODIS Park natives have maintained a similar attacking output, averaging 1.26 goals per game, fitting for a team at 8-8-8. Led by All-Star Hany Mukhtar, Nashville will look to keep their ten-game scoring streak alive. 

Like their offense, Toronto’s defense has improved, especially in their last two league games. This Nashville side should still have enough to power at least one goal into the back of the net, just as the Reds should. 

Both teams to score has hit 16 out of 27 times in Toronto’s matches, while the rate is even higher for Nashville, happening in 19 of 27 matches. 

Let’s listen to all the numbers, and they are saying go both teams to score.

Pick: Both Teams to Score -150